Why ERA is a Misleading Stat and This Reliever shows it
- Aaron Gandia
- Jun 20
- 2 min read
When people evaluate pitchers, most people point to ERA as the main indicator of how good a pitcher is. The typical benchmarks for ERA are 4.00 (average), under 4.00 (good), and over 4.00 (bad). ERA is measured by the number of runs a pitcher allows divided by the number of innings pitched, multiplied by nine. Most people follow ERA due to how simple it is to understand and calculate. This metric is often very misleading and doesn't account for defense or the quality of contact the pitcher allows. ERA is especially misleading with relievers, as one bad outing can balloon a pitcher's ERA due to the limited number of innings they pitch in a season. New York Yankees reliever Devin Williams is a prime example of why ERA is a volatile stat and why MLB teams don't put too much stock into ERA when evaluating relievers.
As of June 20th, Devin Williams has a 5.27 ERA in 27.1 innings pitched. On the surface, if a pitcher's effectiveness was only based on ERA, Devin Williams would be considered a terrible reliever. However, his bloated ERA can be attributed to three separate occasions where he gave up 3 runs in a condensed timeframe from the end of April to the beginning of May. In many of those appearances, especially an appearance on April 19th, he was subject to bad luck. In that appearance, he was tasked to hold a 4-run lead against the Rays. After recording one out to begin the inning, the Yankees made an error followed by a walk, a double that was hit 84.9 mph off the bat with an xBA of .130, a single at 73.1 mph with an xBA of .060, and a single that was hit 80.9 mph which tied the game. To add insult to injury, Williams escaped the inning after getting a double play that was hit 110.0 mph off the bat. Batted ball data isn't accounted for in ERA, and outings like this show ERA is significantly flawed.
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a better stat that represents how good a pitcher truly is because it accounts for what the pitcher can control. The stat is derived from home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts divided by innings pitched. Devin Williams' FIP is 2.66, which is less than half his ERA. His FIP suggests he's very good at controlling what he can actually control and shows that he's been significantly unlucky.
Throughout Devin Williams' career, he's always been considered one of the best relievers in baseball, mainly due to a career 1.83 ERA in six seasons excluding this year. He's only allowed one home run the entire year, and most of his blow-up outings are results of bad luck. Despite Devin Williams' ugly ERA, his peripherals are very similar to years past, and he's recently compiled an ERA of 1.77 in his last 15.2 innings pitched. He should still be considered one of the best relievers in the game, and his performance will eventually even out as the season progresses.
So Williams is better than advertised this season- very nice