David Robertson Update

On June 10th, I discussed a contract valuation for David Robertson, who is currently 40 years old and hasn't been signed up until July 20th. A variety of reasons can be attributed to why he hasn't signed, including his age or overpricing himself in free agency as he doesn't have an agent and represents himself.

Photo Courtesy of On Pattison

Despite the various issues regarding why he hasn't signed, he's been getting better with age, and his 2024 season proved it. In 2024, his fastball velocity increased to 94.7 MPH, and he posted a 2.65 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Due to a positive uptick in performance, I decided to include potential risk factors that would decrease the value of any contract he would receive. Along with that, I decreased the value of a projected contract by 1/2 since he hasn't signed a deal, as he will not be on an active roster for at least 1/2 of the season. Robertson earned a 0.30 risk factor score, which is slightly below average as 0.50 is the max. The model suggested Robertson would be worth a 1-year, $2.4 million contract.

As of July 20th, the Philadelphia Phillies reached an agreement with David Robertson and signed him to a 1-year contract worth $6.22 million, according to Mark Feinsand, prorated to $16 million for the entire year.

This contract largely outperformed the model because it disregarded the amount of time he would pitch this season. Even if certain risk factors weren't included and he signed before the season, the contract wouldn't touch $16 million and would be considered a significant overpay.

Regardless of the value of the contract, the Phillies will be getting much-needed bullpen help, bottom 10 in ERA (Earned Run Average), from David Robertson, who has proved himself as one of the most dependable relievers in the last decade.