Dylan Cease Free Agency Overview:

The 29-Year old righty, Dylan Cease, is widely considered the best pitcher in the 2026 free agency class. In a time where pitchers are often getting hurt, Dylan Cease defies the trends of the modern day pitcher. He's averaged 178.8 innings pitched per season from 2021-2024. The only injuries he's suffered between that time included a Covid-19 related il stint and a triceps contusion from a comebacker. Both injuries occurred in 2021. In addition, despite posting a slightly above average career ERA (Earned Run Average) of 3.81, he's had stronger underlying numbers including a K/9 of over 10 since 2021. His expected ERA except for 2022, where he posted a 2.20 ERA, has always been lower than his actual.

Photo Courtesy of Yahoo Sports

People may be confused why I'm endorsing a pitcher with a 4.66 ERA this year that ranks among the worst amongst qualified pitchers as the best starter this upcoming free agency class has to offer. Well, his expected ERA sits at a 3.62 and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits an even lower 3.30. For any baseball casuals reading this, FIP is a much better stat to evaluate pitchers since it only accounts for outcomes the pitcher can control: Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Hit by Pitches (HBP), and Home Runs (HR) divided by innings pitched.

So how much should he make in free agency? Assuming he doesn't suffer any immense injuries or his underlying data completely falters, he should command a solid 5-year contract in free agency. Considering his low FIP and other underling statistics that are very good, the valuation model takes all of these factors into account and predicts a reasonable contract. Keep in mind that the valuation model ignores the market and often prices can increase due to higher demand etc...

Verdict: 5-Years $131.3 Million

AAV- $26.26 Million / Year