Revisiting the Corbin Burnes Contract:

Since becoming a full-time starter in 2020, Corbin Burnes has proven himself as one of the top pitchers in MLB over the past five years. Unfortunately, he's recently made headlines for all the wrong reasons. On June 6th, the Arizona Diamondbacks announced that Corbin Burnes would undergo Tommy John surgery following his sudden exit from a game on June 1st due to elbow inflammation. During the limited time he pitched this season, he recorded a 2.66 ERA (Earned Run Average) and a less promising 3.88 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Additionally, his average fastball velocity dropped noticeably from 97.0 MPH in 2024 to 95.6 MPH this season, possibly foreshadowing the issues to come.

Corbin Burnes' recent injury is a disappointing outcome for baseball fans around the world as his dominant pitching will be missed. The same can especially be said for the Diamondbacks, who signed him to a 6-year, $210 million contract in last year's offseason. The Tommy John surgery will end his first season under contract while also preventing him from pitching all of next season as well.

In light of this injury, I'm going to take a look at the contract Burnes received in the offseason from the Diamondbacks and see if it was worth it based on past data.

Over the last five years, Burnes recorded a 2.86 ERA (Earned Run Average), which was second among qualified starters. In addition, he recorded 881.0 innings pitched in that timeframe, which is 5th among qualifiers. After establishing himself as one of the best starters in the MLB with the Milwaukee Brewers, he was shockingly traded to the Baltimore Orioles before the upcoming 2024 season during the offseason.

Burnes didn't disappoint in his walk year, pitching to a 2.92 ERA and 3.55 FIP while leading the Orioles to the playoffs.

Throughout Corbin Burnes' career, he's shown that he is one of the best pitchers in baseball today. His combined dominance along with strong underlying stats prove this. In addition, he's shown strong durability throughout his career and didn't show signs of being an injury risk before he signed.

Including all these factors, the valuation model shows he should've gotten a 6-year, $220.7 million contract, which is over $10 million more than what he actually received.

In light of the injury, it shows that any pitcher, regardless of past durability, is susceptible to significant injuries. All pitchers are risky assets, and MLB teams need to find new ways to manage their risk.

Verdict: 6 Years, $220.7 Million

AAV - $36.78 Million/Year