Why Seranthony Dominguez's recent 2-Year $20 Million dollar contract is a significant overpay

Seranthony Dominguez, a reliever who's pitched for the Phillies, Orioles, and the Blue Jays, signed a 2-year contract worth $20 million with the Chicago White Sox. Dominguez was traded to the Blue Jays midseason and posted a 3.16 ERA for the whole season in 67 games, a career high. Along with that, he posted a 3.47 FIP.

His Statcast numbers were also very good and suggested he did better than expected. He posted a K% and a whiff% above the 90th percentile. However, he posted one of the worst walk rates in the entire league among qualifiers. Dominguez walked 13.8% of the batters he faced, which significantly reduces his value. His past seasons were defined by inconsistency and some blow-up seasons in between. The contract model shows he is essentially worth a minor league contract. Considering his solid surface performance and good underlying statistics, he should be worth more. The walk rate and bad FIP averages significantly hinder the model's favoritism towards him getting a large contract. According to the valuation model, he is worth a 2-year $16,161 thousand dollar contract, which is significantly below what he actually got.

Actual- 2-year $20 Million dollars

Projected- 2-year $16,161 Thousand dollars