Teams Should Not Trade For This Former Cy Young Finalist

In the 2024 offseason, the Kansas City Royals signed starter Seth Lugo to a 3-year, $45 million contract with a player option after the second season. So far, the signing has worked out for the Royals as in 2024 Lugo performed to a 3.00 ERA in 206.2 innings, which was second in all of baseball. His strong performance led the Royals to the postseason for the first time since 2015. Lugo placed second in American League Cy Young voting and even won a Gold Glove.

Photo Courtesy of The New York Times

Seth Lugo has carried his success from last season, posting a 2.74 ERA in 15 games. Despite this, his underlying stats paint a different picture and suggest he's due for significant regression. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) stands at 4.18, and all of his peripherals are below average. His hard-hit rate is at the bottom 9% of the league, and he's allowing hard hits at a 47.3% clip. He's also walking hitters 8.0% of the time compared to 5.7% last year. The Royals' record stands at 40-47 and they are likely to sell at the deadline, with Lugo being their most valuable trade asset. With a player option of 1 year remaining after this season, Lugo is likely to opt out of the option to secure a bigger contract as long as his surface results can sustain itself.

Teams bidding for Seth Lugo's services should be wary of his underlying numbers, and regression is expected to come.

• https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/seth-lugo-607625?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

• https://www.fangraphs.com/players/seth-lugo/12447/stats?position=P

• https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lugose01.shtml