What's Wrong With Sandy Alcantara and Should he be Traded?

Sandy Alcantara (29)

ERA: 6.88

Salary: 4th year of a 5-year, $56 million contract, club option for 2027

Photo Courtesy of the Miami Herald

It has been a rough season for the Miami Marlins as they've been one of the worst teams in the MLB. As of June 17th, they're 28-42, which is the 4th worst record in the MLB. The Marlins' season isn't surprising considering most people had them written off before the season even started. One of the popular headlines during Spring Training was which players they would trade at the deadline. The most popular of them was their ace Sandy Alcantara, who was coming off Tommy John surgery. Before the injury, he posted over 184.2 innings pitched each season from 2019-2023, excluding the 2020 COVID season. Along with that, he won the Cy Young award in 2022, posting a 2.28 ERA in 228.2 innings. Throughout his career, he's been a stable workhorse and a bright spot for many mediocre Marlins teams.

However, his first season back from injury hasn't gone as planned. Despite some better outings recently, the righty has posted a 6.88 ERA. His performance has placed him among some of the worst starters in the MLB. However, his average fastball velocity remains at 97.3 MPH, which is comparable to how it was before surgery. His underlying stats also aren't great but suggest he's been slightly unlucky. He's posted a xERA of 4.75 along with a xFIP of 4.46.

A reason for his poor results can be attributed to a change in his pitch arsenal, where he's been utilizing a curveball that has 7.9 inches less downward break than average, making the pitch profile a terrible pitch. He should stop throwing the pitch altogether. Also, his arm angle has decreased from 34 degrees, which has remained constant throughout his career, to 31 degrees this season. As a result of his lower arm angle, his fastball has gained 2.5 inches more tail, making it profile similar to his sinker, leading to little variety between both offerings.

Ultimately, I do believe a team with better pitching development systems in place would be able to fix Sandy Alcantara and help him perform close to his peak. However, his surface stats are too bad to the point where the Marlins would receive significantly less than what they normally would if he were doing well, regardless of how team-friendly the contract is.

Verdict: Marlins shouldn't trade Sandy Alcantara