Why the Tyler Mahle signing was a steal

On January 5th, the San Francisco Giants signed starter Tyler Mahle to a 1-year, $10 million contract. Mahle had a breakout season in a limited sample size of only 16 starts and 86.2 innings pitched. In that timeframe, he posted a 2.18 ERA (Earned Run Average) along with a solid 3.37 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). He dealt with a rotator cuff injury that sidelined him for most of the season.

Photo Courtesy of NBC Sports Bay Area

Mahle has been plagued by injuries throughout his entire career, including Tommy John surgery that knocked him out from 2023 to 2024. Mahle had large success with the Cincinnati Reds, especially in 2021, where he pitched 180 innings and posted a 3.75 ERA along with a 3.80 FIP, giving him a 3.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Considering his prior success along with his health issues that have plagued most of his career, entering his age 31 season, the valuation model projects a 1-year, 17.5 million dollar contract, which is 7.5 million dollars over what he actually got. This is in large part due to his solid FIP numbers that come from his ability to limit home runs, 1.28 HR/9 throughout his career. If Mahle can stay healthy, he should be able to be a strong contributor to the Giants rotation in 2026.

Projected contract: 1-year $17.5 million

Actual: 1-year $10 million